Bad News

Well, it would seem our trip is going to have to be shelved for the time being. And it may not happen for quite a while.

We have been thwarted, before we even set out, by a volcano. Of all the things to be thwarted by, this at least seems reasonable. But that doesn't stop it from being just a little bit heartbreaking. We've spent so much time and effort researching, planning and excitedly telling anyone who'd listen; to have to postpone is very very sad.

But, who are we to argue with a volcano?

I guess we could have worked this out before now. After all, Holuhraun has been kicking off for over 4 months. But while we knew about the exclusion zone for flooding and lava, it's taken quite a while to learn about the exclusion zone for gas (principally SO2). And even once we'd found that out, it wasn't until late last week that we learned the general guidance suggests going near this thing for extended periods is a bad idea.

Since then we've contacted the Professor for Volcanology at the University of Bristol who offered us the following, fairly sobering, advice:

"...volcanic gases ARE hazardous, as they contain both respirable particulates and high acidity (including HF, HCl and H2SO4). As you know, the gases travel with the wind, and therefore it is not possible to choose a route that will not be impacted. If the eruption is still continuing in July, I could not in good conscience advise you to travel in the highlands near the eruption site..."

We have also encountered the Icelandic Meteo site, which forecasts gas emissions. It's very clear from their website that emission concentrations vary wildly and are pretty unpredictable. But there is a broad pattern, and that pattern seems to suggest we'd be spending a good deal of time cycling into ever increasing concentrations of SO2, until such time as we died (possibly). Plus, given the variance in concentrations on an hour by hour basis, we might go to sleep okay, but wake up in danger. And where we're going there's no quick getaway.

One of their more cheery maps is shown below. Anything orange or above is a potential risk to health. Red or above has a safe exposure of 15mins, less if you're doing anything which requires breathing heavily (like riding a 40kg bike up a hill).  As you can see, we'd be spending about 4-5 days exposed to fairly high concentrations of SO2.

And if we survive that (with only short term health impacts), you don't want to be in the wrong place when it turns into this (these images are 4 hrs apart):

Anything in purple is described as "Very Unhealthy - Everyone may experience severe respiratory symptoms". Nice.

So, like Brave Sir Robin, we've chickened out. And unless Holuhraun stops erupting before May/June, then I'd say this trip probably isn't going ahead in 2015, and that makes me pretty unhappy.